World’s Worst Novel: Chapter Twenty-Seven

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72 Responses to World’s Worst Novel: Chapter Twenty-Seven

  1. Dryocopus pileatus says:

    i don’t think we disagree. the madness can be explained by the financialization of everything. it’s not that the fundamentals don’t exist so much as they don’t manifest in real time. blah, blah, blah some will say, it has always been that way. OK, yes, but not like now. there are 2nd, 3rd derivatives, that in a math sense give crazy leverage, and in a real world sense, cause a huge divergence between real world events and price discovery, in space, and in time. so maybe crude should have moved to these levels over the course of several years, rather than in a few months. do you know what i mean? and then throw in some energy politics, and screwy government incentives, and you start to get into a real mess. but i ramble.

    nice horse and buggy. a juxtaposition of old and new, and also sensible leverage.

  2. Dude says:

    dingdangfuckaroo n. (slang) Australian origin, widely adopted

    Reportedly the way it came out when an exceedingly drunk, lonely, outback station hand tried to say “I’m hornier than a two-pecker dingo and I could fuck a kangaroo.”

  3. Dryocopus pileatus says:

    i read that definition too fast, and almost took offense.

  4. Dryocopus pileatus says:

    i was still thinking about the crude oil situation, and remembered that back in the 70’s we had moves like this, if i remember right… i was just a kid. but what is different this time is that there is even a debate as to WTF just happened. so much for transparent markets. and then you have a commercial jet liner shot down, another one just vanishes, in an age of out of control espionage, and we are just left guessing on those events too. so what i’m saying, is that things sure do seem a little odd these days.

    what were you saying again about gold prices?

  5. EO says:

    Well, here’s my theory on oil. Might be right, might be wrong, but it’s at least as good as anyone else’s since nobody really has a clue.

    Go back to 2007. Economy is doing OK, growing, levering up. Oil production is stagnant though. Can’t grow enough to keep up. At that time, Peak Oil Theory still seemed to fit the real world. Frackers were fracking natural gas, but fracking crude oil was still on the chalkboard. Not enough supply for demand, what does the market do? Of course prices up. This should bring more supply, and tamp down demand. But we couldn’t get more supply. So prices higher…and higher. Still not enough supply, so eventually demand just cracks entirely. All the levered up players are finding that they can’t sustain in a $140/bbl world. Everybody thinks the Great Whatever It Was was caused by crappy mortgages and shady banksters. Not so. It was the oil, or lack thereof. Lack of oil merely got the ball rolling. Lack of oil drained the pool so we could see who was naked.

    Now jump to 2014. Mirror image. Demand is kind of tepid, but supply is booming. Libya and Iraq are getting back online. Frackers are going bananas on crude oil. US production has jumped from 5 or 6 million bbl a day up to 9+. We can’t use or store it all. Mr. Market says OK, lower prices. That should drop supply and goose demand. BUT, it’s unclear whether supply will really drop, or how fast. Saudi’s say no. Other OPECs and Russia need cash money. If the next barrel provides even a tiny bit of positive cash flow, they’ll pump it. Same for indebted frackers. If the next hole is still projected to provide even a tiny bit of positive cash flow, they’ll drill it. They have debt payments to make. So, production is unlikely to respond much to lower prices. So it’s the demand side that is going to have to be the market balancer. Much stronger demand needed. Mirror image of the Crash of 2008, is the Boom of 2015.

    Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand will finally give Main St the stimulus that the Gub’mint and the Fed were incapable of.

    Giddy Up.

    And if the charts turn and prove me wrong, I get out. Period. Wrong is wrong. I don’t spend years with my head up my ass arguing that the market is wrong, or manipulated, or broken. I just get out, and wait for the next train.

  6. EO says:

    In short, oil supply was inelastic to the upside in ’07-’08, and now likely to be inelastic to the downside in ’14-’15, therefore, in both cases, resulting in outsized effects on the demand side.

    Hey, I had Econ 101!

  7. Pete Maravich says:

  8. Pete Maravich says:

    Senor Green on the scene :mrgreen:

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  10. Pete Maravich says:

    ” But whatever you wish to keep, you better grab it fast”

    Your brain on Pete.

    Excellent Jerry interpretation of a Bob tune.

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  12. Pete Maravich says:

    useless, irritating ads, I don’t even know how to close most of them. anyway,, lyrics for above. hi all. http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/bobdylan/itsallovernowbabyblue.html

  13. Pete Maravich says:

    I’ve often wondered if this song was written for and about bankers (written in 72, I think) a premonition and warning type of thing.

    Dunno. Some Traffic: 😯

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    for Xty:

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