It is here in the comments on the last thread, and then just this morning a headline flashed past me, Fitch: Greek Election Uncertainty Raises Banks’ Liquidity Risks, as I checked on the current status of the U.S. dollar, and I remembered a previous me who would have tried to read those tea leaves. And when I went to the article, I realised that it was actually helping to raise said uncertainty, and was of course about what might happen, as waiting for actual events seems passé in news circles these days. Which got me discussing this question of what should one worry about with Mikey.
And then I started making Insanely good oxtail stew, because life is prosaic. But eventually I sat down on the couch with a cup of tea and remembered that it was Monday and there would be a new EconTalk podcast. And so there was [free of course to subscribe to on iTunes, if you want to be an eager nerd, ed.]. And wouldn’t it turn out that the discussion is really about what to worry about, and fat tails and thin tails and islands and ecosystems.
I think Nassim would have us worry about the consequences of the responses to the financial crisis and hence perhaps Greece, as he seems to include financial contagion as something that can have a globally disastrous fat tail … but I would also have to say that I did not follow all that was said as it is really a verbalization of a mathematical concept about risk analysis, which takes a bit of faith for the mediaevally trained. It ends on an interesting note as Nassim gets on an anti-GMO rant which one can’t help but be sympathetic to. It doesn’t really help in the ‘think globally, act locally’ meme but only because it doesn’t provide solutions, which wasn’t the goal of the underlying paper. My feeling about these podcasts that are much above my pay scale is that they rub off on one, helping to add a deep thinker’s, or two’s, or in this case quite a few’s, insights into the mishmash that wallows about in one’s cranium.
Like sleeping in a Holiday Inn Express, you just wake up feeling smarter!
Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Precautionary Principle and Genetically Modified Organisms
EconTalk Episode with Nassim Nicholas Taleb
hosted Hosted by Russ Roberts
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Antifragile, Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about a recent co-authored paper on the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and the use of the Precautionary Principle. Taleb contrasts harm with ruin and explains how the differences imply different rules of behavior when dealing with the risk of each. Taleb argues that when considering the riskiness of GMOs, the right understanding of statistics is more valuable than expertise in biology or genetics. The central issue that pervades the conversation is how to cope with a small non-negligible risk of catastrophe.
What me worry?
i haven’t read the podcast yet, but this bread just came out of the oven and would go perfectly with your soup, so i will use that as an excuse to comment first.
Bread and silly love songs
i just noticed the new “word of the day” and so have another excuse to post. but to at least contribute to the topic above, i think that the podcast makes a simple point too complicated. the gist of it is that some risks, no matter how small, just are not worth taking. economists may be even worse windbags than politicians. so in the spirit of your wise words, (in the WOD sidebar) “those blowing the hot air need to cool down with a refreshing beverage, and those getting blown sure could use a frosty something.” let me buy all those present at Xty’s Ratskeller a tall cold Bier.
edit: btw… nouns in German are always capitalized.
I think what happens is that very smart people synthesize things so they sound simple and obvious – and what it missing here that is cool is that he is right about statistical “science” – I think for a mathematician it would be more exciting, because they can show the error.
We had a friend whose masters thesis in engineering science was only 34 pages long, and he really had to stretch it. He figured out some way to make error free silicon or something like that … and the people who had to go on and on to explain themselves were often just obfuscating.
And cheers, although I am sticking to my fermented grapes.
Keep it short!
or not
Politico magazine has an “everything is even awesomer than we said last week” article out today. do they think we all are so fucking stupid as to not cynically realize that this rag of a mag is biased as hell, and this article is coincidentally so very timely considering the president gives his “State of the Union” address tonight?
sorry, for i am again in rant mode. but i won’t be watching it (the state of delusion, or is it illusion?), so i am at peak irritation right now, and will now play the above music selections to help me chill the hell out. 😯 , 😀 , and 😆
edit: and if you don’t think the magazine has a slant, read this…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politico
edit: edit: and i do not mean partisan slant. i mean a Washington DC slant.
it’s all good now.
which reminded me of this song from my brief punker past. yup, even peckerwood went through a very angry and cynical period in his youth! but the song(s) is actually pretty hilarious if you give it a chance. warning: not for prudes!
last one. kind of a blues jam. maybe i finally got the Packer’s embarrassing loss out of my system with those last two songs. m44, you are next in the booth. serenity now. namaste. 🙂
I have to confess I was a poser punk really – I never dressed the part other than skinny jeans, just liked hanging out with them and the music and the drugs – I was a happy go-lucky kind of teen, and usually up for stuff. Just sometimes I got into the wrong stuff. I remember once being angry that I had nothing to be angry about … that’s how pathetically bad my anger was. But I have trouble believing I was escaping from some secret hell …
but you, cynical and angry? Seems a stretch, but I’ll just have to take your word for it.
Just to reach out and slander America first thing in the morning, I think what seemed like a good idea when communication took literally weeks sometimes, i.e. to sort of rotate through elections, and stagger the senate and congress changes etc., has led to a most unfortunate continuous political cycle where there is no break from the constant politicking. I know it is always going on in the background here too, but it doesn’t seem to take over everything to the same extent.
And I am truly sorry about the Packers’ untimely demise, but as first a Leafs and then a Sens fan, disappointment is the name of the game around here. I would mention a football team, but I know that the CFL seems humorous to you folk with your little field and too many downs and warm weather and fans. But Go Argos Go just in case.
Oddly enough, my dad was pretty much a Green Bay fan too – should have been Buffalo but I certainly remember because it was kind of gross that they were meat packers – I didn’t get what that meant as a young kid – visions of them stuffing raw meat into containers and then compacting it – I expected a product called packed meat, sort of like Spam.
stick check Xty – you are skating on thin ice with those meat packer comments.
i never dressed punk, nor accessorized, pierced, tatooed, or mohawked myself in any remarkable way, though i did end up in quite a few mosh pits. at one point i lived with members of both heavy metal and punk bands. i do remember in the late 70’s when punk really got rolling that it was for me and my young, impressionable, and angry friends an alternative to disco. in fact, even disco itself at that time totally pissed me off!
now that i am getting old, i like both kinds of music. 🙂
I am still working on rap …
too funny…
what about this one?
Maybe that is a bit much for the morning … a punk antidote:
Major computer struggles here.
Incredible 3 days of weather,..50’s w/Sun in Jan.
Hi all.
Old favo(u)rite Head’s tune….if I can make it go. Pete.
Can’t get enough of this version for some reason.
night all.